China’s June home-price data shows stabilization taking hold first in the largest cities. National Bureau of Statistics tables released in mid-July show first-tier new-home prices edged up month on month, while year-on-year declines narrowed across Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
Shanghai Remains The Positive Outlier
The city table shows Shanghai new commercial residential prices at 100.3 month on month and 103.1 year on year, making it the clearest first-tier price gainer. Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen still showed year-on-year weakness in new homes, but monthly readings were less negative or slightly positive in parts of the table, suggesting buyers are responding selectively to policy support and discounts.
Resale Markets Are Still Repairing
Existing-home prices remain the weaker side of the market. First-tier resale prices were still down year on year, although the pace of decline narrowed. Beijing and Shanghai showed small monthly resale increases, but the broader resale market continues to carry the burden of buyer caution, older stock and households waiting for clearer income confidence.
Second- And Third-Tier Cities Lag
The national reading is not a full recovery. Many second- and third-tier cities remain flat or declining month on month, and the improvement in first-tier cities has not fully spread. That keeps developers focused on projects in cities with deeper employment bases, stronger population retention and more credible policy transmission.
What To Watch Next
China’s next signal will be whether Shanghai’s resilience broadens to Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen resale demand. Without a stronger second-hand market, the stabilization will remain narrow and policy-dependent. Track China real estate daily: For current listings, price trends, and market data, visit chinahousingmarket.com.
