Real estate investors in Asia Pacific are steeling themselves for impacts stemming from the coronavirus, the threat of which would add to existing economic headwinds in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While it\u2019s too early to know exactly how commercial real estate markets could be affected, the increasingly important position of China on the world stage means economic repercussions are likely, according to a JLL report on the topic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe virus is untimely for China given that it\u2019s the start of a new calendar year and the spread escalated during the country\u2019s most important holiday of Chinese New Year in late January,\u201d says Roddy Allan, chief research officer, JLL Asia Pacific. \u201cThis has made it more difficult for the Chinese economy to reopen fully.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The coronavirus virus \u2013 which originated in Wuhan, China, in December late last year \u2013 has spread globally, with cases reported in Southeast Asia, Europe and United States. In China, factories, malls and tourism have been affected, adding to strains from trade tensions with the U.S. last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe Chinese government understands the central role it plays to keep the global economy stable and has moved swiftly and decisively to manage the fall-out, avoiding a sharp correction,\u201d Allan says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the final 2019 figures aren\u2019t yet out, Asia Pacific\u2019s gross domestic product likely slid to 5.8 percent last year compared to 6.3 percent in 2018, according to a World Bank report in October, due to the trade war and lower global demand for exports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
While the region\u2019s real estate had a strong showing overall in 2019, rental declines were evident in key markets such as Hong Kong and Beijing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cEven before the coronavirus crisis, investors were already exercising caution and seeking out sectors and markets which show signs of resilience amid ongoing political uncertainty and a gradual slowdown of the global economy. The outbreak has put this demand clearer into focus.\u201d<\/p>Roddy Allan, chief research officer, JLL Asia Pacific<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
While looking to the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 for hints on how markets could perform this year, investors should be cautious on reading too much into it, Allan says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mainland China\u2019s economy is nine times larger now than it was in 2003, just before SARS hit Hong Kong in March 2003.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The country is also now the world\u2019s top exporter and the second-largest importer, not to mention the world\u2019s second largest economy; when SARS hit, it was the sixth largest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, Allan foresees the coronavirus having a similar \u201csharp but short-lived\u201d impact on the region\u2019s real estate investment market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThe impact on deal volume should be limited if the outbreak dies down in three to six months,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Transaction volumes may pull back slightly in the first half of 2020 as some investors take a wait-and-see approach and delay deals, but should be back on track by the second half of the year due to accommodating policies.<\/p>Roddy Allan, chief research officer, JLL Asia Pacific<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n
Retail and hospitality vulnerable<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Service industries have been among the first to feel the impact. On the hospitality front, the coronavirus has hit hotels in Hong Kong, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand and Australia, where Chinese tourists are among the biggest groups of visitors. Major airlines such as Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airlines and AirAsia have scaled back flights to and from China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Retail in China, Hong Kong and Singapore is also expected to feel the impact as consumers avoid crowded places such as shopping malls, while major brands including Nike, Apple and Starbucks are closing outlets across China to prevent the spread of the virus among employees and customers, according to JLL.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cThere is no escaping the fact that investor sentiment will be affected in the short-term, but we do not foresee a lasting negative drag on Asia Pacific\u2019s real estate,\u201d Allan says. \u201cRisk premiums will recede once the virus is under control.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Real estate investors in Asia Pacific are steeling themselves for impacts stemming from the coronavirus, the threat of which would add to existing economic headwinds in the region. While it\u2019s too early to know exactly how commercial real estate markets could be affected, the increasingly important position of China on the world stage means economic […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1143,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[79,40,25,23],"class_list":["post-1142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-real-estate-market","tag-asia-pacific","tag-coronavirus","tag-real-estate","tag-thailand-housing-market"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t